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Eskom says that it lost 42 generating units over the last week – and while it has managed to bring 37 back, it underlines how volatile and vulnerable the grid is, with uncertainty over maintenance persisting.
The power utility was forced to implement load shedding on Tuesday (6 September), which continued full-time over the weekend and into this week.
Stage 4 load shedding was in place until 05h00 on Monday, dropping to stage 3 through to 05h00 on Tuesday (13 September).
From Tuesday, load shedding will continue at stage 2 until midnight on Friday (16 September).
Speaking to the media on Monday (12 September), Eskom chief operating officer Jan Oberholzer said that the stage 4 load shedding over the weekend allowed the power utility to replenish dam levels and make progress in filling diesel tanks for use in the open cycle gas turbines.
However, because the diesel is transported by tankers and filling takes time, the diesel levels are still low, necessitating overnight load shedding this week. As the diesel tanks are filled, load shedding will drop – however, Oberholzer warned that this is only if no further breakdowns occur.
“This may change at short notice if there are breakdowns,” he said.
Oberholzer said that R7.7 billion had been spent on diesel in the first six months of the year.
“Are we proud of it? No. Do we have money to spend this? No.”
This is way above the budget, he said – it is the entire budget set for the year, six months in. “So we will overspend on diesel this year,” he said.
Looking further ahead, the COO said that Eskom intends to ramp up maintenance in the coming summer months, which could lead to sporadic load shedding. He added that maintenance remains a big issue for the group, as it is not seeing the outcomes it expected.
He said that as soon as some units are returned to operation following maintenance, they break down again soon after. He attributed the maintenance problems to a lack of appropriate skills and experience needed to address the issues.
Eskom is facing maintenance issues with milling plants, high-pressure valves, cooling water systems, conveyors, and water treatment plans – among others.
Oberholzer said that Eskom desperately needs new capacity to be added to the grid so that it can conduct critical maintenance on its stations. There is no capacity for the utility to take off as many units as it needs to do the necessary maintenance, so there are many units that are operating with known defects, the group said.
The power utility said that delays are also impacting capacity. It had intended on returning 4,000MW to the grid on Monday, but delays at two units meant that a significant chunk of the capacity would only come online on Tuesday.
The group recently published its load shedding outlook for the rest of the year, noting that it has to keep unplanned outages below 13,000MW to minimise rolling blackouts.
In a more load shedding-heavy scenario, if outages remain above 14,500MW, stage 2 load shedding will be frequent for the foreseeable future. If the power utility is unable to keep outages under 16,000MW, load shedding at higher stages becomes the standard.
Eskom’s latest system status report shows that the power utility is facing a severe generation shortage with a high likelihood of load-shedding in 2023.
The status report’s 52-week outlook forecasts electricity demand versus available generating capacity.
The outlook between 5 September 2022 and 11 September 2023 shows that the likely risk scenario is ‘code red‘ for 49 out of the 52 weeks, where the shortage to meet demand sits at over 2,001MW.
Read: Perfect storm brewing for South Africa as load shedding intensifies