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The United States Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC) has reportedly started engaging with its stakeholders in South Africa over the deepening electricity crisis, considering what will happen if the power grid collapses.
According to MyBroadband, which reviewed recordings of the meeting, the US officials are not yet concerned about a total collapse of the grid – expressing faith in Eskom’s system operator to mitigate such an eventuality – however, it is critical to consider the risks of it happening.
The discussions in the meeting centred around what would happen to the country should a total blackout occur, and how long it would take to get systems back online.
The key takeaways were warnings of looting and civil unrest – with the aftermath looking like the result of a civil war – with Eskom facing difficulties getting the grid up and running again due to how spread out it is.
You can read the full details of the meeting on MyBroadband.
US Government warning about Eskom — time to think about total grid collapse
The caution from the US comes as South Africa is sitting on its 82nd consecutive day of load shedding. Rolling blackouts have hit the country every day of the year so far – and at higher stages than most businesses and residents are equipped to deal with.
Energy experts have warned that load shedding is likely to get worse before anything gets better, with Eskom facing a massive energy shortfall while being unable to meet demand due to its constantly failing power stations.
As a result, talk of the highest stage of scheduled load shedding – stage 8 – has been picking up traction, with some analysts saying the country may even step beyond that.
According to energy expert at Hohm Energy, Matthew Cruise, the stage 8 load shedding ‘limit’ is an arbitrary ceiling, and Eskom could, in theory, have load shedding stages as high as grid capacity would allow.
Independent analyst Pieter Jordaan noted that, based on the current blackout schedules, the mathematical maximum stage that small power users like households would face, is stage 14 – where households would have power for one hour every three days.
“Stage 15 would mean that they are permanently disconnected from the grid,” he said.
Even at these extreme levels of theoretical load shedding, however, the grid would still be protected from collapse as that is the entire point of load shedding to begin with.
According to Cruise, in the event of a blackout, all loads representing load to the grid would be removed from the grid so that it could be maintained and the power stations could continue to power the lines and each other.
“They would move to an idling state where they could power the power stations and keep the lines active,” he said.
Eskom previously explained that if capacity issues go beyond stage 8, it is currently up to the System Operator to make specific determinations, per province, for how much additional power needs to be pulled from the grid.
Energy expert Professor Anton Eberhard has also given a more detailed explanation of what blackout conditions would look like and what South Africa would need to do to protect the grid.
However, Eskom stressed said that load shedding is used as a last resort to prevent a nationwide blackout.
If South Africa were to suffer a complete blackout, the country would be left in the dark for weeks.
“If preventative measures, including load shedding, are insufficient – the national grid will collapse. A blackout is unforeseen, and therefore, the System Operator will not be able to make an announcement in advance,” Eskom said.
“A national blackout will have massive implications, and every effort is made to prevent this from occurring. Depending on the nature of the emergency, it could take a few weeks for the grid to recover from a blackout.”
According to Cruise, it is unlikely that a South Africa-wide blackout would take place for at least the next three years.